TIME: Almanac 1993/TIME Almanac 1993.iso/time/100989/10098900.007

Text File | 1992-09-23 | 5.8 KB | 115 lines

                ¢                                                            WORLD, Page 44

CHINA

The Making of Deng's Successor


Jiang Zemin emerges as the front runner, but the race isn't over
yet

By Sandra Burton/BEIJING


    The Chinese Communist Party took no chances last week when
it staged its first press conference since last June's
Tiananmen massacre. The 300 accredited Chinese and foreign
journalists underwent a tight security check at the entrance to
the Great Hall of the People. Inside the meeting room, those
selected to ask questions were planted within easy view of the
men on the dais. As the six members of the Politburo Standing
Committee filed in, wearing Western business suits and fixed
smiles, one stood out as the first among equals. "Good morning,"
Jiang Zemin said in English, waving gamely to his audience.

    The televised media event on the eve of celebrations
marking the 40th anniversary of the founding of the People's
Republic of China was the most public step yet in the grooming
of Jiang, 63, to succeed 85-year-old party patriarch Deng
Xiaoping. When Jiang, the mayor of Shanghai, was selected in
June to replace ousted General Secretary Zhao Ziyang, most
Chinese were surprised. An engineer who lacks both a political
power base and ties to the increasingly influential military,
Jiang was considered a seat warmer ultimately destined for
lesser things.

    But since then a series of leaks to the foreign press of
internal party circulars has provided documentation of Deng's
efforts to convince conservative claimants to his throne that
the reform-minded Jiang should follow in the footsteps of Mao
Zedong and Deng and serve as "the core" of the party's
"third-generation" leadership. By playing such a prominent role
in last week's anniversary observances, Jiang has achieved
front-runner status in the race to succeed Deng. Put another
way, Jiang has won his New Hampshire primary -- but the race is
far from over.

    Jiang's press performance did more than heighten his
visibility. It also dampened speculation that he might serve as
Deng's front man for correcting the current conservative tilt
within the party's divided leadership and salvaging Deng's
embattled program of economic reform and bridge building to the
outside world. Although Jiang played no known role in the
decision to order the People's Liberation Army into Beijing, he
went even further last week than reactionary Premier Li Peng did
when he was asked whether the "Tiananmen tragedy" could have
been avoided.

    "We do not believe there was any tragedy in Tiananmen
Square," declared Jiang. The incident, he went on, was the
"unavoidable" consequence of the attempt by some demonstrators
to "overthrow the socialist system." He likened media reports
about the situation in Beijing to "fairy tales from the Arabian
Nights."

    Although a strong proponent of reform since 1981, when he
investigated prospects for setting up Special Economic Zones
inside China, Jiang referred economic questions to Vice Premier
Yao Yilin, an advocate of the strong central planning that
stunted the country's development before Deng came to power.
Later in the week, Jiang gave a major anniversary address to top
party leaders, model workers and soldiers that was larded with
phrases from China's Stalinist past. "Failure to stick to the
socialist road, while using the blood and sweat of laborers to
fatten the capitalist class, will plunge most of the Chinese
people into extreme poverty once again," he warned. Referring
to sanctions imposed on China by some Western nations, he vowed
never to "give up our national independence in exchange for
alms."

    As the third party leader to hold the post in three years,
Jiang could not have helped pondering the fate that befell Zhao
and his predecessor, the late Hu Yaobang. Both were touted as
Deng's heirs apparent before falling from grace for espousing
political change and failing to prevent "bourgeois
liberalization," the socialist code words for Western capitalist
influences. Jiang appeared to be charting a more cautious course
for himself by echoing the rhetoric of the elderly hard-liners
who rallied behind Deng to suppress the democracy movement but
then went on to attack his ambitious program of economic
reforms. "The differences between Zhao Ziyang and Jiang Zemin
are very, very slight," said an East European analyst who has
met them both, "but Jiang is more pragmatic. He understands who
is stronger at the moment, and that is why he must stick to the
line."

    Yet there is good reason to remain skeptical about Jiang's
ability to salvage Deng's precious reforms while the old man is
still alive, much less consolidate power after Deng dies.
Tensions exist between Jiang and Premier Li, who appears to have
lost influence to the new General Secretary. President Yang
Shangkun, reputedly the mastermind behind last June's military
crackdown, is known to covet Deng's last remaining official
post, chairman of the all-powerful Central Military Commission.
Should Deng retire, he could presumably designate Jiang to
succeed him on the CMC. The army refused to accept Deng's
previous heirs apparent, however, and there is little reason to
think that Yang and the veteran revolutionaries who remain the
true arbiters of power would be any more kindly disposed toward
Jiang.

    "He wears the imperial purple uneasily," observed a Beijing
intellectual, who predicted that the new General Secretary
would be unable to outmaneuver his reactionary rivals. In that
event, the high-stakes contest to find a successor capable of
reconciling the ghosts of China's past with the promise of the
future would likely be a protracted one, a race that could
continue long after Deng Xiaoping passes from the scene.